Voting Begins in the Netherlands as Surveys Suggest Possible Repeat Victory for Geert Wilders

Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.