‘The Situation is Dire’: Hostilities on Iran Tightens India's LPG Availability.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, pushing restaurants to reduce offerings, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside LPG distributors across Indian cities and towns as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are adopting solid fuels and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a significant portion of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their fuel reserves have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies wax and wane. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the officials states there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and spokespersons say cylinders are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.

About 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now largely blocked by the conflict.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been triggered by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Anxiety is palpable," the text reads.

According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a industry commentator.

Based on vessel tracking and expert analysis, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. Kitchen fuel stocks is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's energy imports may be cushioned by global trade flows. But in kitchens across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.