MAGA Voters for Zohran Mamdani and a New Progressive Alliance: Key Unexpected Outcomes from NYC’s Election

Only two days prior to the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, and block by block. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in the city, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win while missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your night?

It was necessary because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes that came in later and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible in which election day turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump previously backed Zohran this year. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over half. He has 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he does because afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on the island who had a strong turnout. I think occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and residents all went for Cuomo. Thus there existed a little resistance. However no, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that every city in America can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – since they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities exist.