From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Within the considerable disarray regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.