Everyday Murders in Mexico Decline 37% Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Data

The average figure of per-day homicides monthly in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new administrative data. However, security experts have warned that homicide numbers could fail to signal enhanced national stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of almost 55 murders a day in November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidency in September. This information was shared by the head of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen over these past months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the lowest figure of murders were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Fierce drug cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an seemingly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central pillars of the President's security strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

But, public safety experts warned that focusing solely on homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is especially true in light of the uptick in different crimes such as abductions.

“This would be very good news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to accurately identify and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was additionally concerning because it may obscure days when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Using the daily average makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still plagued by severe bloodshed, with several states in the midst of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas said.