Donald Trump's Ukrainian Peace Proposal Represents a Gift to Putin

At first, the former US president gave the impression to adopt a resolute approach on the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing warnings of "severe consequences" during the summer if Vladimir Putin carried on blocking ceasefire discussions, Trump eventually imposed major penalties on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly hindered the Russian leader's ability to finance his war effort in the region.

But, via his recently unveiled detailed peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly developed by US and Russian officials excluding Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has seemingly reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's plan would effectively favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while placing the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Although strong statements that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", much of the proposal effectively compromise that essential sovereignty. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his real-estate past, Trump continues to treat the war as a mere border issue, as if ceding Russia a part of Ukrainian land will please the president. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not simply about controlling a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear desire to eliminate it so it stops functions as an attractive model for the Russian people of the accountable government that Putin's growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Giveaways

While freezing in place the currently divided regions of these areas, Trump's plan would compel the nation to give up the whole this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been failed to occupy in more than a lengthy period of conflict, this concession would render Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously compromised.

This region is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that represent a critical impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, giving Putin a open path to the capital should he eventually choose to restart the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate renewed fighting simpler for the Russian military, Trump would require the nation to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a maximum of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's plan places no similar constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people administration as extremists, Trump's plan states: "Every Nazi ideology and practices must be rejected and prohibited." As if to emphasize this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. However, Trump sets no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by holding votes in his own country.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the initiative has Russia commit not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in regulation its position of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet considering that Putin has breached similar agreements in the previous instances – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a restoration of captured land in the region to Ukrainian control – why should the international community believe this commitment on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so determined on external protection assurances. While the proposal warns of a "decisive coordinated defense action" if Russia resume its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong defense commitments", the particulars range from vague to troubling. The proposal would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also preclude member states from deploying troops on the nation's land, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from rebuilding his diminished forces, re-equipping, and attacking again.

Global Concern

Another parallel deal reportedly would offer the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any later "significant, planned, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an act of war jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." That suggests a armed reaction. But different from a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's primary defense against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to react militarily to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not